The Tasmanian Liberal government is gambling with the future of the $1.13 billion Macquarie Point stadium by refusing to properly investigate the benefits of light rail, according to the Rail Tram and Bus Union (RTBU).

A new report from the McKell Institute commissioned by the RTBU finds the state government’s transport plans for the precinct rest on a business case that ruled out light rail before it was economically modelled, going against Infrastructure Australia’s own guidelines.

None of the bus options modelled for the stadium project returned a benefit-cost ratio above 1.0, meaning the costs outweighed the benefits for every option it tested.

RTBU national secretary Alex Claassens said the Tasmanian government’s refusal to properly consider light rail would have long-term consequences.

“It’s baffling that the state government is willing to condemn Hobart to traffic chaos by deliberately ignoring the obvious and cost-effective light rail solution for the new development,” Mr Claassens said.

“We can’t spend more than a billion dollars on a stadium and wave away the question of how tens of thousands of people are supposed to get there.

“A billion-dollar stadium without a high-capacity, direct transport link is a recipe for disaster. We’ve seen stadiums across the country fail to reach their potential because they’re plagued by poor transport links. There is an obvious solution waiting on the tracks that can deliver benefits for generations, but it’s being blatantly ignored.

“The state government’s own business case for buses was flawed from the beginning. It never seriously modelled light rail and the options it did present failed to show a positive return on investment.”

The report highlights a solution in the existing northern rail corridor, a publicly-owned asset that runs directly to the stadium precinct.

 Developing this corridor for light rail would be significantly cheaper and faster than acquiring new land, which is a common hurdle for major infrastructure projects.

 “This is much more about a stadium and getting footy fans to games,” Tasmanian Branch Secretary Mark Dunsby said.

 “This is a state-shaping decision and a once-in-a-generation opportunity that could unlock thousands of new homes in northern suburbs and create a properly connected capital city.

“Yet instead of testing this option, the state government arrogantly dismissed light rail without ever running the numbers.

 “Tasmanians can’t afford a billion-dollar blunder based on half-based transport plans. The state government must commit to a proper business case for light rail and deliver a modern transport the state capital deserves.

The RTBU is calling on the Tasmanian and federal governments to:

• Commission a full business case for light rail along the northern corridor and carry it through to cost-benefit analysis, rather than leaving it out altogether
• Protect the northern rail corridor from being built over or stripped of its legal protection while that work is done
• Release the $25 million committed in the 2018 Hobart City Deal to activate the corridor, which is still sitting unspent

Read the McKell Institute Report, Connecting Macquarie Point: The case for light rail to Hobart’s future, here.