Australia’s general freight task is on track to grow by 26 per cent over the next three decades and will default to trucks, but new modelling shows that shifting freight to rail could save up to $640 million a year and make roads safer.

The McKell Institute’s new report, Sharing the Load, commissioned by the Rail, Tram and Bus Union (RTBU) warns that letting the entire freight boom default to roads is an unfair and unsustainable burden on the community.

The RTBU and McKell Institute are calling for greater investment to ensure rail can carry a fair share of the growth and make our supply chains cheaper, cleaner and safer - allowing road transport operators to focus on vital first- and last-mile logistics.

Capturing just 30 per cent of this future growth on rail would deliver a massive $640 million annual dividend to the national economy, save 400 million litres of diesel, and prevent 18 fatal road accidents every year by 2050.

Annual benefits of rail capturing future freight growth by 2050. Source: McKell Institute modelling from Sharing the Load report

Queensland Executive Director of the McKell Institute Sarah Mawhinney said: “The future of Australian freight must be a collaboration between trucks and trains. It is unrealistic and damaging to expect the road transport sector to shoulder the entire burden of a 26 per cent freight boom.

“This is not a marginal call. Governments have spent years measuring rail against the cost of a truck, without counting what it costs the country in congestion, road maintenance and lives lost when nearly all of this freight growth is left to default to roads.

“We cannot simply dump millions of tonnes of extra freight onto our major highways and expect drivers to cope. It will clog roads and put lives at risk.

“By allowing rail to carry the heavy, long-distance loads we take the pressure off the highways and support a safer and more sustainable trucking industry, making freight cheaper, cleaner and safer for all.”

RTBU National Secretary Alex Claassens said: “Australia’s freight task is only going to keep growing and if we don’t invest in it, we risk building a supply chain that can’t withstand a fuel shock. Freight is critical for building fuel resilience and ensuring the weight doesn’t fall entirely on truck drivers and roads.

“Moving long-haul freight to rail is a strategic shield. With Australia importing more than 90 per cent of our liquid fuel and any global conflicts that arise, we expose our road-dependent supply chains to severe shortages. Rail is 2.5 times more fuel-efficient than road, so shifting more freight onto rail helps the country maintain resilience and keep moving when fuel supply lines come under threat.

“We saw during Covid just how reliable the rail freight network can be when the rest of the supply chain was under stress. That reliability is the product of the infrastructure behind it, and it needs further investment if rail is going to carry its share.”

Key findings:

• Australia's general freight task is projected to grow by around 98 billion tonne-kilometres by 2050, and under current settings almost all of that growth will default to road
• Capturing 30 per cent of the future growth on rail would remove 16,000 long haul trucks from roads, prevent 18 road deaths annually and save $640 million a year
• That shift would also save 400 million litres of diesel a year and avoid 1.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions
• Even a smaller 10 per cent shift would remove more than 5,000 trucks a year from the road and save 134 million litres of diesel
• Heavy vehicle crashes account for around 15 per cent of all road deaths in Australia, and the 30 per cent rail growth scenario would avoid an estimated 18 road fatalities a year by 2050
• Transitioning long-distance freight to rail protects businesses from fuel shocks as rail is 2.5 times more fuel-efficient than road - under a 65 per cent diesel price rise, road transport operating costs would surge by 15.4 per cent, while rail costs rise by 6.7 per cent

Key asks to build a resilient, balanced freight network:

• Establish a National Freight Logistics Taskforce to coordinate a 10-year freight on rail action plan
• Implement a coordinated package of commercial incentives that makes rail freight more attractive to both freight customers and rail operators
• Develop a national strategy to accelerate the transition of freight rail to lower emissions energy sources while protecting Australia's fuel security
• Prioritise national intermodal infrastructure investments, including double-stacked capabilities, terminal expansions
• Expand the use of rail for dangerous goods to improve the highway safety and protect communities